Case of a paranoid Dragon

India, a de facto competitor? Case of a paranoid Dragon

By Kartik Lokhande

China has been quite vocal about direction of its strategy concerning India. The latest example is an article in People’s Liberation Army (PLA) daily. As per the news reports, the daily has dubbed India’s infrastructure development in Indo-China border areas as an indication of India ‘starting to treat China as a de facto competitor’.

In the light of China’s comments and actions so far, it is easy to conclude that China disapproves any move by India to strengthen her own defence infrastructure, especially along Indo-China border. However, it also raises a question – why is China concerned so much if India is strengthening her own defences? And, answer to this question is very simple – because, China started the competition.

China started the competition on various fronts – market domination, area domination, diplomatic channels, defence infrastructure upgradation, reaching out to countries hostile to India, and doing everything that would make clear her expansionist agenda. Still, Beijing has been maintaining that it believes in ‘peaceful rise’. When one of the major countries in a region starts showing off her might, others cannot simply watch and wait. Obviously, other countries would come up with a response that would befit their existence, threat perception, and deserving dominance. And, India has been doing so quite actively of late.

The use of the phrase ‘of late’ is purposeful. Because, since the 1962 China-India war, India’s approach to anything related to China was over-cautious, and hence, subdued. Once, during an informal discussion, an Air Vice Marshal put it in words thus, “1962 war is a blemish India has to live with.” Post-1962, India’s responses concerning external affairs, defence ties, diplomatic exercises, and even sprucing up of defence infrastructure in border areas has been reflecting the over-cautious approach. There were times when India got leaders who had vision for strengthening India. However, vision of them all differed at one angle or the other. As a result, strategic policy regarding China was never articulated and well-formulated.

Even on diplomatic front, India remained extra cautious. Taking advantage of this, China raised its pitch steadily from calling for ‘clear skies’ relationship with India to interpreting India’s move as treating the former as ‘de facto competitor’. Factually speaking, it was China that first started exhibiting its competitive military strength – nuclear submarines, steps to set up bases in other countries in Indian Ocean Region, stepping up infrastructure creation along the border with India.

Beijing also started teasing India when it denied visa to Lt Gen B S Jaswal, General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of Northern Area Command of Indian Army, last year. The reason given by China was that Lt Gen Jaswal looked after Kashmir, which was a ‘disputed territory’. This reason was sufficient indication of the geo-political ambitions of the Chinese.

Other aspects like extending soft loans to countries inimical to India, initiative to set up naval bases like the one at Gwadar Port in Pakistan, PLA’s advances in areas of Leh, and claims over Arunachal Pradesh etc just confirm Chinese ambitions.

There is more to the story. A couple of times in the recent post, China has been accusing India of being expansionist. However, it is the other way round. The latest confirmation of this is Beijing’s demand for being a ‘dialogue partner’ in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) instead of being just an observer. The demand if more than indicative of China’s intentions of increasing it clout in the region. Combined with its other advances like backing Maoists in Nepal, with which India has had extremely cordial relations, China’s intentions appear to be expansionist.

While being overly aggressive, China has been trying to provoke another major power in the region – India. The statement of Beijing that India thought of China as a ‘de facto competitor’ has, therefore, to be viewed in the light of these facts. And, given the facts, China’s claim appears to be nothing but a perception aimed at provoking India.

On its part, India’s position is unambiguous. Weaving her strategy around realistic threat perception, India has been building patiently her defences not only in the border regions but also elsewhere in the sprawling Indian Ocean area lined by many states whose strategic interests match with those of India. In addition to defence infrastructure, India has also been strengthening its interests in trade and commerce. Of course, at this stage, India’s foreign trade is far below the Chinese levels. Yet, as India pursues its goals rather assertively, the Chinese take notice.

A simile can explain the Chinese attitude well: A little while ago, when the Chinese leaders were driving a car on a deserted highway, nothing was visible in the rear-view mirror. Then, all of a sudden, a faint spot of another car appeared, and started growing bigger. After a while, the Chinese leaders noticed the Indian flag on the car, and panicked.

That was actually only a paranoia. Yet, psychologically, the Chinese reacted rather more sharply than expected. But, then, in international realpolitik, psychology has always played a major role. In fact, when a major power like China gets edgy without explanation, then experts read that as an early sign of its vulnerability sometime in the distant future. Hence the perception that India treats China as a ‘de facto competitor’.

(Published in The Hitavada as news analysis on November 15, 2011)