NEWS ANALYSIS: Chinese Checkers


By Kartik Lokhande
China is ‘poised to take de facto control’ of South China Sea. This warning by Philippines must  be taken in all its seriousness by all the countries of the world and not only the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). For, whatever steps China has been taking especially over the past few years in the global political economy, are well in tune with her ‘vision’ of realising her ambitions of territorial domination.
While sounding the alarm over China’s ambitions in South China Sea, Philippines has also called on the members of ASEAN to ‘stand up’ to China. The concern expressed by Philippines has its roots in some latest ‘reclamation’ works taken up by China in disputed South China Sea, and especially at Spratly Islands. China has been dredging seven reefs. At some places, multi-storeyed structures have come up and at others the infrastructure development is adequate enough for docking of military ships. As per the reports, at one reef China is developing a runway capable of handling movement of military airplanes.
As far as China is concerned, all these developments are in its ‘sovereign territory’. However, if one considers her neighbours in South China Sea, the claim is contested. Apart from Philippines, the other neighbours involved in the matter are Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia. However, of these, only Philippines and Vietnam have staked claims to major island chains in South China Sea. Malaysia and Brunei have minor claims, and China and Taiwan have claimed almost entire South China Sea. Of the countries involved in the dispute, only China has been expansionist in its actions, giving a damn to international conventions and laws. China wants the ‘international community’ to consider her historic rights over the territory, and refuses to accept jurisdiction of the International Tribunal for Law of the Sea, to which Philippines has approached.
China has been successful to a great extent in keeping the major world powers like the United States and India out of the South China Sea dispute. Whenever she noticed that the nations involved in the dispute were making a friendly gesture at the US or India, China raised strong objections to such friendships. China’s reservations to India carrying out oil exploration work in South China Sea, or objection to likely intervention of the US indicate that China wants to have tighter control over the sea. For, gaining control over South China Sea holds special significance for China as far as ensuring its oil/energy security without having to depend on transportation through Indian Ocean. South China Sea is resource-rich, and in today’s competitive world, control over sea lines of transportation and oil security are keywords for any nation wanting to gain upper hand in world politics, from strategy and economy points of view.
Of course, China has not depended only on South China Sea claims. It has successfully planted ‘String of Pearls’ in nations touching the Indian Ocean Region. India woke up to this harsh reality and started countering the Chinese strategy by way of reviving ‘cultural empire’ and reclaiming her spiritual ties with neighbouring as well as far-off nations. Sensing this, China focussed on construction of Gwadar port in Pakistan to secure oil supply for herself. From the Gwadar port to mainland China, oil is proposed to be carried through a network of rail route and pipelines. However, increasing worries for China, India has resumed seriously the task of striking a deal with Iran for developing Chabahar port. This may keep in check China’s activities from Gwadar port. Also, there is resentment about lack of positive impact of the port development on the lives of locals in Gwadar, something which is troubling Pakistan Government.
Against this backdrop, it is all the more important for China to have its tighter control over resource-rich South China Sea to ensure her oil security. Compared to Indian Ocean Region, the countries in South China Sea board are geographically and militarily smaller in expanse vis-a-vis China. Keeping in view the expansionist agenda of China, it is high time that major powers of the world including India lend an ear to the warning sounded by Philippines and take appropriate measures -- strategic and diplomatic -- to strengthen bond with nations other than China involved in South China Sea dispute. Such measures will help India counter-balance China’s growing influence in nations neighbouring her. Considering the present-day geopolitical situation, India has to prepare herself for playing this game of ‘Chinese Checkers’ with only success in mind. 

(April 26, 2015) 

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