Is change really coming for Pakistan?

Is change really coming for Pakistan?

January 2012

By Kartik Lokhande 

“Pakistan is changing,” said Imran Khan, the new-found hero of Pakistan politics. Within a couple of days since he made the statement in an interview to a news channel, change was visible on horizon.

On Monday, while ‘saluting’ the members of Pakistan National Assembly for passing with majority the pro-democracy resolution, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani gave an indication of that change when he said, “We wanted to send a message to the world that here is a responsible Parliament, which is sovereign and supreme.”

However, situation in Pakistan needs to be given a deeper thought before coming to the conclusion that change is coming in true sense for the troubled nation. Whether the change means replacing Pakistan People’s Party of President Asif Ali Zardari with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf led by cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, is another thing that needs to be given a thought.

Taking into account the history, even the people of Pakistan will not deny that ambitious military rulers led Pakistan to current-day situation. Current-day situation includes dependence on US aid, lack of clear policy on supporting US in ‘war on terror’, poor handling of affairs in tribal areas, focusing more on military thinking than democratic temperament, Government-military and Government-judiciary tensions, high-profile corruption cases etc. For most of the crises that Pakistan is facing today, military rulers are to be blamed. However, the political class that failed to exercise its powers enshrined in the Constitution cannot be granted exemption from taking the blame.

At present, Pakistan is getting the taste of its own medicine. It harboured terrorists, right from Osama bin Laden to those who masterminded attacks on India. At the same time, it allowed the US to operate from Pakistani soil in ‘war on terror’. Action in tribal belts, which were pockets of under-development and neglect for long, was another factor that complicated the situation as these areas got converted into breeding grounds for terrorists. Owing to all these actors operating against each other, Pakistan became internally unstable. To add to the woes, hardliner Pakistani Army leadership continued to protect religious fundamentalists and anti-India groups.

In the process, Pakistan became weaker economically also. At present, the picture is dismal. Pakistan’s growth rate projections have been brought down from 4.7 per cent of GDP to 3.6 per cent. The critics compare the growth rate with that of smaller countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The situation is at such a low for a variety of factors. One factor quoted often by experts is that only one per cent of identified taxpayers pay taxes in Pakistan. Another factor is rampant corruption, the heat of which the current Government is facing.

The people in urban areas, where access to education had been good, realised this some time back. They realised that neither the Army nor the established political class was doing any good for the country’s future. Hence, they came out in support of judiciary. However, by the time they came in support of judiciary, there was a change of regime -- from military leadership to civilian Government. People waited, but soon realised that internal strife was not lowering and that corruption was rampant. Now, the urban class is fed up of religious fundamentalism, anti-India and anti-US mindset, neglect of economy and developmental requirements. Hence, they have become vocal in criticism of state of affairs in Pakistan.

Particularly the younger generation wants situation to change. Youngsters want skies to be clear of religious fundamentalism, corruption, and uncertainty posed by frequent change of regimes as well as lurking fear of military coup. The change in mindset of younger generation is quite visible in its voicing of opinion through social media. It is rallying behind emerging leadership of Imran Khan instead of continuing support to established and tested political leadership. At the same time, youngsters are opposed to military leadership again because they believe that it did not prove beneficial for the country, though it was in power for half of the history of Pakistan so far. Hence, it is supporting the democracy, though not necessarily the party in power.

As a result of this mounting pressure from the people of Pakistan, the Army, the judiciary, and the ruling party all are talking of democracy in Pakistan, irrespective of their clashes with each other. Though tensions exist between military and civil leadership as well as judiciary and civil leadership, they do not appear to translate into another martial law for now, which is a good sign for Pakistan.

On this count, change appears to be coming for Pakistan-- a welcome change, a democratic change. However, some apprehensive quarters are still saying that military coup could be a possibility, it is just a matter of time. Whether that happens, remains to be seen. Meanwhile, Imran Khan appears to be an emerging credible leader of Pakistan. Crowds at his rallies, general tilt towards him and his ideas, favourable response to his campaign on social media and among the younger generation are enough indications of the sentiment. Whether all this translates into catapulting him to power, also remains to be seen. If what some of Imran’s critics are saying -- that he is being projected by the Army-- is true, then Pakistan is heading for another disaster. But, saying anything on Imran’s promise would be too premature at this point of time.

If Pakistan adopts what Zulfikhar Ali Bhutto had said once while summing up situation in Pakistan 20 years after Independence, then Pakistan is surely heading for a positive change. Then, Bhutto had said, “Unlike many other countries. Pakistan has unfortunately not yet been able to resolve many of its basic internal problems--issues affecting the people, their destiny, the lives of their children and the future shape of their society. The problems, which  affect the people and are near to them, have never really been referred to them for settlement. Mohamed Ali Jinnah pledged that Pakistan would have a Government and a constitution chosen by the people. That promise has yet to be redeemed. There will be no end to our troubles until the people of the country determine their future freely.  The present deadlock can no longer be broken by more manipulations. The next step has to be taken unburdened by past errors.” For now, people in Pakistan are high on hopes of a positive and democratic change, free of any kind of manipulations.