Long-term allies say ‘au revoir’ to each other in Maharashtra

NEWS ANALYSIS

By Kartik Lokhande 

Thursday, the first day of auspicious festivities of Navratri, proved to be unauspicious as far as two major political alliances in Maharashtra were concerned. While Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena bid farewell to each other after a long association for 25 years, the present-day ruling allies Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) also said ‘au revoir’ to each other after 15 years.
As per the statements made by leaders of national parties BJP and Congress, the alliances had to be broken mainly because of adamance of regional parties Shiv Sena and NCP respectively over seat-sharing formula. However, there appears to be a pattern in the breaking of long-term alliances. The snapping of ties is aimed more at drubbing the regional parties Shiv Sena and NCP, by national parties BJP and Congress. There are a variety of reasons behind this. Of course, these reasons are not stated directly.
As far as BJP-Sena alliance is concerned, it came together on the issue of Hindutva when Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray held the sway in electoral politics of Maharashtra. While raising the pitch for Hindutva and attacking minority appeasement by Congress, Shiv Sena also stood up for ‘Marathi Manoos’ in Mumbai and united Maharashtra. Sharing common ideological ground against pseudo-secularism, BJP and Shiv Sena’s alliance grew stronger year-by-year and it formed the ruling combine in Maharashtra in 1995. As per the formula based on who won more seats, Shiv Sena had the post of Chief Minister and BJP accepted the post of Deputy Chief Minister.
Of course, during the rule, there were occassions when differences of opinion emerged between BJP and Shiv Sena. But, a wonderful co-ordination and understanding among the leaders at the top in both the parties ensured that the coalition worked. However, after it was unseated from power by Congress-NCP combine in 1999, differences became visible with Shiv Sena becoming more aggressive against minorities and trying to expand its base, and BJP leadership giving more importance to national perspective and distancing itself from hardline. The differences became sharper when BJP-Sena combine failed to get back to power in 2004. The untimely death of senior BJP leader Pramod Mahajan, who was considered one of the pillars of the coalition, took away a pacifier of tensions between the two parties.
Meanwhile, Raj Thackeray broke away from Shiv Sena and launched his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) with a stated objective of protecting the interests of ‘Marathi Manoos’. This forced Shiv Sena to revisit its old agenda, and this confined it to particular pockets of Maharashtra only. By the next elections held in 2009, Shiv Sena suffered jolts as its leaders quit and joined other parties. By the time Maharashtra entered the year 2014, two more solid pillars of BJP-Sena coalition fell in Bal Thackeray and BJP senior leader Gopinath Munde. Uddhav Thackeray took over as Shiv Sena chief after Bal Thackeray but could not impress much. Number of disgruntled leaders increased in Shiv Sena, and it continued with regional focus.
BJP utilised the defeats faced in 2004 and 2009 elections to consolidate its position at national level in a steady manner and emerged as a national party. It systematically highlighted the successive policy failures of Congress-NCP and strengthened its network nation-wide taking up issues of national importance. In the years of alliance, BJP also passed a resolution in its convention held at Bhubaneswar to carve state of Vidarbha out of Maharashtra, in accordance with its policy of supporting smaller states. BJP acted upon its policy and created states of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Uttarakhand during its rule in the Centre. However, in Maharashtra, state of Vidarbha could not be carved out because of alliance with Shiv Sena.
Of course, the latest sweeping success under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has boosted confidence of BJP. Its confidence is raised to the level when it feels that it does not need support of regional party.
Congress and NCP, which had contested the elections separately in 1999, found a success formula in post-poll alliance. Since then, despite repeated failures on many fronts and bickering between leaders of both the parties in several pockets of Maharashtra, desire to remain in power kept the alliance intact for 15 years. There were initial troubles over allocation of portfolios, but Congress and NCP settled the disputes with intervention of NCP chief Sharad Pawar. The alliance continued at national level also with NCP supporting Congress in forming United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government.
However, in the very first term, Congress consolidated itself and systematically acted against the stronger leaders of allies including NCP. Sharad Pawar and Praful Patel got powerful portfolios at the Centre, but these portfolios were held by Congress ministers in Maharashtra. Often, differences of opinion emerged between leaders of both the parties over implementation of certain schemes. NCP continued with the policy of mounting pressure on Congress party, and derived gains out of it. Congress understood this, and unstated efforts were made to attack NCP leaders especially Pawar over his association with cricket and real estate businesses. NCP also hit back, indirectly criticising Congress leader and the then Chief Minister Ashok Chavan over ‘Adarsh’ scam.
After a couple of years since 2009 elections of State Legislative Assembly, Congress consolidated its stature as a national party, it sent Union Minister Prithviraj Chavan to restore party’s image after ‘Adarsh’ taint. Chavan acted in a systematic manner and chose to talk only to NCP chief Sharad Pawar as far as issues in alliance were concerned. He did not share a good rapport with Deputy Chief Minister and ambitious NCP leader Ajit Pawar. This was made clear by both in past three years.
Just as Ajit Pawar announced ‘Mission 100’ to win 100 Assembly seats for NCP in 2014, Congress hit back. Countering the ‘Adarsh’ taint, Chavan caught NCP in tight spot over irrigation scam in which Ajit Pawar was involved. Pushed on back-foot, NCP attacked Chavan over delayed decision-making. A war of words between the allies ensued, and both accused each other of conspiracy. This led to a disharmony among workers of both the parties, and this divide only strengthened position of BJP-Sena in the elections of local bodies. Besides, to ‘teach a lesson’ to Congress, NCP acted against the alliance, and joined hands with BJP-Sena in several Zilla Parishads in Maharashtra in 2012. This strained the relations between both the parties. While doing so, NCP unknowingly confined itself to being a regional party.
It is against this backdrop that the break in years-old political alliances in Maharashtra should be viewed. It is quite clear that Congress and BJP both want to re-assert their identities as national parties. Breaking alliances with NCP and Shiv Sena respectively is a move towards drubbing these regional parties, and sending message that national parties would decide terms. This is also in accordance with the mood of national electorate that stable governance can be given only by national parties. For, over the years, voters feel that the regional parties have often halted implementation of a national vision uniformly in various states.
How do voters respond to the breaking of alliances, and all four major parties going solo in Assembly elections, remains to be seen. Only time will tell if this ‘au revoir’ is forever or just a pre-poll move to test the turfs.

(25-09-14)