NEWS ANALYSIS: Factors that worked wonders for AAP in Delhi polls

By Kartik Lokhande
The one who draws lessons from a defeat is likely to emerge winner the next time. Precisely, this has proved true in case of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has done a clean sweep in the Legislative Assembly elections in the national capital -- Delhi.
Winning as many as 67 out of total 70 seats is, by all standards, a solid historic victory. That, it has been scored against Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that has come to power at the Centre with a thumping majority in Lok Sabha elections only a few months ago, makes it even more stupendous. Apart from decimating the presently ruling BJP from 32 to a paltry 3, with which it technically cannot even get the post of Leader of Opposition; AAP’s victory has also left ‘was-ruling-till-recently’ Congress party with a big zero, a loss of eight seats it won in 2013 elections.
What caused this landslide win of AAP? There are various reasons.
The first and foremost reason is that the BJP resorted to a ‘negative campaigning’ against AAP. It targeted AAP leader and Chief Ministerial candidate Arvind Kejriwal through insulting cartoons and video-clips being circulated on social media and mobile phones. Further, BJP’s own Chief Ministerial candidate Kiran Bedi also avoided any debate with Kejriwal citing that he was ‘anarchist’. Right from the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP National President Amit Shah to BJP’s local leaders, everyone kept calling names to Kejriwal, even equating him with ‘Naxalites’.
In the noise of targetting Kejriwal, BJP’s vision for development of Delhi did not reach properly to voters. BJP leaders kept on recollecting the ‘poor performance’ and ‘escape route’ adopted by Kejriwal during his previous tenure as Chief Minister of Delhi, instead of explaining to voters their own plan for effecting positive change in Delhi. Some of AAP leaders including former MLA Vinod Kumar Binny joined BJP, but kept on firing salvos at Kejriwal. Ridiculing AAP leader as ‘mufflerman’ or ‘liar’, only made Kejriwal focal point of BJP’s campaign.
While doing this, BJP forgot that the Indian voters have been favouring the most targetted candidate/party in the past few years. Narendra Modi himself is a big beneficiary of ‘negative campaigning’ done by Congress against him for years together. From being consecutively elected Chief Minister of Gujarat, Modi rode high on ‘self-destructive negative campaigning’ of Congress, and rose to become Prime Minister of India. During the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate kept on firing salvos at the persons of the then Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh. It resulted in re-election of the Government headed by Dr Manmohan Singh to the Centre. But, the BJP failed to take notice of this element of voters’ behaviour in the past few years, and focussed all its energy on criticising Kejriwal alone.
As against this, Kejriwal and AAP showed that they had learnt their lessons well after 2013. Kejriwal made efforts to change his image from ‘coughing’ and ‘muffler-wrapped’ Chief Minister ‘who took to streets’. Right from his dressing sense to speech, he made a lot of improvement. Further, he consciously kept away from campaign heat some of AAP leaders, whose statements had landed the fledgling party in trouble in the recent past. While deciding candidates also, AAP roped in at least 17 such faces who were experienced in poll-politics and had contested at least one election in the past. Contrary to what the BJP did, AAP leaders avoided launching attacks against persona of any of the leaders of BJP or Congress. They took every opportunity to explain their vision to voters, instead of wasting time in negative campaigning, a radical change in its strategy compared to 2013.
Kejriwal also responded to crisis situations in a smart manner. When there were allegations by a volunteer group AVAM that AAP had got donations from ‘non-existent donors’ through ‘hawala channel’, BJP launched a frontal attack questioning the morality and ethics of AAP. Kejriwal simply asked the BJP-led Government at the Centre to institute an enquiry. However, instead of instituting an enquiry and helping make election campaign cleaner, the Government skirted the issue. Later, AAP donor accused AVAM of ‘producing fake cheques’ to malign the image of AAP.
When the Shahi Imam of Delhi’s Jama Masjid Syed Bukhari offered support to AAP, Kejriwal again played it well and rejected the offer. However, Kejriwal did it convincingly stating that his party would not accept the support offered by a person who had preferred to invite Pakistani Prime Minister instead of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the coronation ceremony of his (Imam’s) son. This boosted AAP’s and Kejriwal’s image in the eyes of the voters, and also sent a message that here was the man who respected the position of Prime Minister of India.
Then, there were pre-poll surveys. Almost all the surveys showed AAP leading the tally, and these predictions were based on result of strong ground network of AAP in not only slums but also more urbane areas. However, BJP leadership responded to it in a negative manner and accused the media of being ‘bazaaru’, forgetting the fact that most of the media was mostly positive about BJP in its Lok Sabha election campaign not too far ago. This sent the message to voters that BJP would go to any extent to criticise those who did not support it. This, added to the mismanagement of media exposure during campaign period, proved to be another folly of BJP. During campaign, Kiran Bedi walked out of a television show, which reflected very poorly on debating capabilities of the BJP’s Chief Ministerial candidate.
Of course, the discontent within the BJP over ‘parachuted’ Chief Ministerial candidate in Kiran Bedi was another reason behind BJP’s decimation this time. As some party insiders believe, Bedi proved to be no match to Dr Harsh Vardhan who enjoyed the image of a ‘spotless and composed’ leader.
Now, with the AAP winning 67 seats and BJP winning three (no need to mention about Congress as it has scored a zero), the road ahead is tough for both. While the AAP under Kejriwal will have to deliver on the promises of freebies it offered during the election campaign, BJP will have to consciously avoid ‘negative and vengeful’ attitude as far as Centre-State relations on Delhi’s development are concerned. Politically, BJP will have to change its strategy to more accomodative and not relying solely on Prime Minister Narendra Modi alone as ‘star campaigner’. AAP also will have to avoid the temptation of going national at this juncture, when it does not have enough strength to reach out to masses as it has done in Delhi over the years.
For, as Kejriwal said after announcement of results on Tuesday, the mandate of people of Delhi is ‘scary’ and one will have to be ‘more responsible’. 

(Filed on February 10, 2015)