LS poll scene in Western Vidarbha constituencies

09-04-14

As Vidarbha region goes to polling for 10 Lok Sabha seats on April 10, here is a pre-poll look at a few constituencies, candidates, and poll scene there. Though there may be different predictions based on a variety of factors (including the ‘satta’ rates), there are several aspects that make the elections this time interesting.
These factors are first-time voters, first-time contenders, anti-incumbency, wave etc. It remains to be seen if first-time voters go to vote in expected numbers. If they go, who will their majority vote for, is one factor that may dent or brighten prospects of candidates. Besides, elections this time are a test of voter-base for newcomer Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as it will decide if it is a serious contender in Indian politics. In the previous election, Vidarbha region had seen Congress winning four seats, Shiv Sena winning three, BJP winning two, and NCP winning a seat. Thus, Congress-NCP as well as BJP-Sena both had got five seats each last time. What will happen this time? Let us take a look at Vidarbha constituencies:

Buldhana

* Composition -- Legislative Assembly segments of Buldhana, Chikhli, Sindkhedraja, Mehkar, Khamgaon, and Jalgaon-Jamod
* Sitting MP -- Prataprao Jadhav (Shiv Sena)
* Prominent candidates -- Prataprao Jadhav (Shiv Sena), Krishnarao Ingle (NCP), Balasaheb Darade (Independent)
* Scene -- Jadhav, a Maratha, is looking for second term riding on wave of BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. Ingle, a Mali community member, enjoys support from Congress and NCP. However, political observers feel that Ingle may face problems due to discontent within NCP over neglect of Dr Rajendra Shingne, who had contested unsuccessfully in 2009 election. Darade is supported by anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare and may get good chunk of votes.

Akola

* Composition -- Legislative Assembly segments of Akot, Balapur, Akola East, Akola West, Murtijapur, Risod

* Sitting MP -- Sanjay Dhotre (BJP)

* Prominent candidates -- Sanjay Dhotre (BJP), Hidayat Patel (Congress), Prakash Ambedkar (BRP-BMS), Ajay Hingankar (AAP)

* Scene -- Dhotre is eyeing hat-trick of victory from the constituency. Ambedkar, who was elected from the constituency twice in the past, has contested previous two Lok Sabha elections unsuccessfully. With Congress fielding Hidayat Patel, there is likely to be a division of Dalit and Muslim votes between him and Ambedkar. Hingankar has attracted public attention, but if it converts into laying foundation of AAP’s voter-base in this constituency remains to be seen.

Amravati

* Composition -- Badnera, Amravati, Teosa, Daryapur, Melghat, Achalpur

* Sitting MP -- Anand Adsul (Shiv Sena)

* Prominent candidates -- Anand Adsul (Shiv Sena), Navneet Rana (NCP), Dr Rajendra Gavai (RPI-G), Gunwant Deopare (BSP)

* Scene -- Anand Adsul is former Union Minister and three-time MP. He was two-term MP from Buldhana, and shifted successfully to Amravati in 2009 election. Against this seasoned politician, NCP has fielded Independent MLA Ravi Rana’s actress wife Navneet. However, this discomforted former NCP MLA Sulbha Khodke’s group. Things deteriorated to such an extent that NCP had to expel its leader Sanjay Khodke for anti-party activities. Now, Khodke has come out openly in support of BSP candidate Gunwant Deopare. Dr Rajendra Gavai, who had contested unsuccessfully against Adsul in 2009, was peeved when NCP decided to field its own candidate instead of leaving the seat for ally RPI-Gavai. He is contesting independently. These factors may dent prospects of Navneet Rana. Adsul also faced a problem during campaign as former BJP MLA Rajkumar Patel worked for Navneet Rana in Dharni belt. This resulted in Patel’s expulsion from BJP. All these factors have made the contest here interesting.

Yavatmal-Washim

* Composition -- Yavatmal, Washim, Karanja, Ralegaon, Digras, Pusad

* Sitting MP -- Bhavana Gawli (Shiv Sena)

* Prominent candidates -- Bhavana Gawli (Shiv Sena), Shivajirao Moghe (Congress), Raju Patil Raje (MNS), Jambuwantrao Dhote (Forward Bloc)

* Scene -- Two-time MP Bhavana Gawli faces popular discontent and anti-incumbency factor. Congress has fielded a seasoned Shivajirao Moghe, who is five-time MLA and Social Justice Minister of Maharashtra, against her. Initially, Moghe trailed in campaign. However, of late, with top leaders including Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi, Union Agriculture Minister and NCP chief Sharad Pawar, Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan addressing poll meetings, Congress and NCP workers are charged up. Despite some resentment here and there in Congress, Moghe has consolidated his strengths. Raju Patil Raje is the lone MNS candidate in Vidarbha, and MNS chief Raj Thackeray also addressed a poll meeting for him. Former MP Jambuwantrao Dhote is contesting Lok Sabha election again. Whether Raje and Dhote dent prospects of Gawli or Moghe, remains to be seen.

Ramtek

* Composition -- Katol, Saoner, Hingna, Umred, Kamptee, Ramtek

* Sitting MP -- Mukul Wasnik (Congress)

* Prominent candidates -- Mukul Wasnik (Congress), Krupal Tumane (Shiv Sena), Kiran Rodge (BSP), Pratap Goswami (AAP)

* Scene -- Congress heavyweight Mukul Wasnik is seeking second term from Ramtek constituency. Of his four terms so far, he represented Buldhana thrice and Ramtek once. Against him, Shiv Sena has fielded Krupal Tumane, who had given a very tough fight to Wasnik previously. In 2009 election, Wasnik defeated Tumane by a margin of 16,701 votes only, which was the narrowest in Vidarbha region. Over the past five years, Wasnik could not devote much time to his constituency with his physical presence. Tumane, however, continued with expanding his network. Shiv Sena and BJP leaders addressed poll meetings for him. Wasnik, on the other hand, is banking on consolidation of Congress and NCP workers for him. Whether Congress retains Ramtek and keeps its reputation or Tumane proves to be ‘giant-killer’ on the basis of BJP and Shiv Sena’s network, remains to be seen.

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